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1,000 Hands With and Without Basic Strategy: Here's What We Got
We played 1,000 hands at $10 twice — by basic strategy and at random — with the same $10,000 turnover. The gap in the result turned out to be threefold. Here are the numbers and what they mean.
In blackjack, as in any gambling game, winning comes down to luck — but that doesn't mean a player shouldn't do everything possible to nudge the odds in their favor. There is such a thing as basic strategy in blackjack: it tells you the plays that give the highest mathematical probability of winning (though never a guarantee). To keep the simulation clear, we didn't double down or split, so the house edge came out higher than in real play — but the ratio between playing by strategy and playing without it is preserved in full.
Basic strategy: the result over 1,000 runs
The casino has to stay ahead no matter what, so over the long run a player will lose a small share of turnover even while chasing the mathematically best decisions. But basic strategy at least lets you lose as little as possible — and with a low average expected loss, you still have a solid shot at finishing a single session in the black.
Our result over 1,000 runs of $10 each: ordinary wins — 421 (+$4,210), including blackjacks paid at 3:2 — 47 (+$235 extra), losses — 488 (−$4,880), pushes — 91 (no effect on the balance).
Basic strategy didn't spare us a negative result, but it minimized the losses: on $10,000 of turnover we lost $4,880 but won back $4,445. The bottom line came to −$435.
Blackjack without basic strategy: what 1,000 runs showed
In effect, any deviation from basic strategy lowers your chances of winning a given hand, even if it doesn't zero them out. Betting the same $10, we made random decisions — hitting or standing — and got this result: ordinary wins — 381 (+$3,810), including blackjacks paid at 3:2 — 35 (+$175 extra), losses — 548 (−$5,480), pushes — 71 (no effect on the balance).
With the same $10,000 of turnover we won $3,810 and lost $5,480. That leaves the balance $1,495 in the red.
Two runs, one turnover
Comparison and takeaway
In our case, basic strategy sharply reduced the losses because every choice fell on the least risky decision available.
1,000 hands, side by side
The same $10,000 turnover (1,000 hands at $10), two different approaches to decisions.
| Metric | Basic strategy | Random decisions |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (blackjacks included) | 421 (47) | 381 (35) |
| Losses | 488 | 548 |
| Pushes | 91 | 71 |
| Financial result | −$435 | −$1,495 |
This result won't repeat in every session, but it makes one thing clear: basic strategy lets you cut your blackjack losses by a wide margin. In our case, it reduced the amount lost over 1,000 hands threefold.